CSARN

2012 PREDICTIONS / NHJ Security Memo

NHJ Predictions for 2012

Well known TV Presenter in 2011: “You are consistently ahead of events”

We see a 50% chance of serious economic unwinding for Europe in 2012 that results in set backs to democracy, increasing protest and disorder, and multiple governments deciding towards the end of the year to dramatically cut back welfare state and e.g. international development commitments. There is a much smaller, but still serious, risk of worse - system-wide economic disaster - that sets dominoes tumbling including beyond Europe. In any event, watch out for a marked rise in protectionism.

There will be referendums in some of the Eurozone countries (e.g. Ireland) that will result in a ‘No’ vote because the proposed treaty changes impose new disciplines, but offer no way out of the current problems. The EU will try to overturn the election result - but they will not win through. The Greeks in particular will finally recognise that they are only loosing by staying in the Euro, and will decide – however reluctantly – that a future decade of ultra-austerity just to get back to a "mere" 120% cent GDP debt is not going to run; and accepting more discipline and more rules which don't address the underlying problems of the Euro just isn’t worth the pain. The European Union will be consumed by internal crises – the big question is whether firewalls can prevent contagion and systemic collapse if and when Greece and maybe a couple of others bin the euro?

Read full memo here

Reported explosives-related breaches of Olympic site cause security concerns, although lessons learned from main incident will have improved effectiveness; role of dogs highlighted

Security breaches have taken on prominence in this period, with two explosives-related incidents drawing headlines:

• In early January it was revealed that security procedures in place at the Olympic Park have been successful in stopping 90% of explosives penetration exercises. Whilst this was portrayed as a positive move and trumpeted a high success rate, numerous observers immediately and accurately noted that this means a 10% failure rate – so in spite of security measures applied at least one dummy device made it onto the site, which is already in pre-games lockdown mode.
• On 13 January it was further revealed that a lorry carrying 20kg of ammonium nitrate (a component for so-called fertilizer bombs) was passed as okay by a canine detection team. It was later intercepted by a manual search.

These incidents have attracted predictable levels of criticism. Penetration testing is however normal procedure and the aim is of course to show up any vulnerabilities in the...

NEW SPEAKER / Adrian Leppard - Commissioner of Police for the City of London

We are delighted to announce Adrian Leppard / Commissioner of Police for the City of London at the 3rd 20 : 20 Vision / Business Security for The Next Decade conference being held at DLA Piper in  London on the 20 Feb 2012

LONDON 2012 WEBINAR / Send Word Now: "Let the Business Continuity Exercises Begin - Preparing for the Olympics"

Yesterday, CSARN member Send Word Now ran a successful webinar with Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline Ltd and Editor of the CSARN Security Risk Monitor, on the likely impact that this year's Olympic Games will have on UK-based businesses. The webinar addressed;

• The real nature of the security threats from the London 2012 Olympics
• What every business continuity planner and security professional should know about preparing for a large-scale event
• How the UK plans to mitigate risks
• Why effective communications should play a critical role in your preparedness plan

To hear the webinar again online and to view the slides click here

 

Bristol anarchists target bank property with arson; letter bombs delivered across Europe; banks and financial institutions remain main anarchist targets

On 15 December anarchists in Bristol attempted to burn down what they described as a Lloyds bank depot by placing bins of flammable material soaked in gasoline in front of wooden doors. Their motive was to express solidarity with ‘comrades’ imprisoned in Greece for anarchist activity, and imprisoned in Chile and Switzerland in relation to attempted bombings. Bristol continues to be a particular hotbed of anarchist activity with the Stokes Croft riots, other clashes with the police, and subsequent arrests proving to be significant drivers in a prolonged anarchist campaign. 

The action in Bristol followed a series of operations by international anarchists earlier in the month. Letter bombs targeted the CEO of Deutsche Bank, the Chief Director of Italy’s tax collection office (Equitalia), and the Greek embassy in Paris. Another parcel was sent to Equitalia on 15 December, although unlike the first this did not detonate, and threatening letters containing bullets were mailed to the Italian Justice Minister and Mayor of Rome.

The letter sent to Deutsche Bank has been published and this claimed action on behalf of the “Free East and Billy Cell”. This refers to the case of two anarchists who were caught after torching an ATM in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on 11 October. Their action in turn was in solidarity with an injured Chilean anarchist, Luciano Tortuga. It is unclear if all these actions were launched by the same group, but the back story shows how networked anarchist groups have become, with causes transcending national boundaries.

EUROPE / NHJ Security Memo

EXISTENTIAL CRISIS: EVEN THE GENERALS ARE WARNING THE ECONOMY COULD TAKE US DOWN WE NEED TO BE ‘BE BLOODY, BOLD, AND RESOLUTE’

This “most terrifying and boring” European economic crisis just gets worse. It is agonising watching this greatest of slow‐motion train wrecks take shape in front of us. We have again witnessed the key participants duck the fundamental issue ‐ turning around public and bond market perceptions and confidence, and agreeing a road map for growth – and instead turn on each other and turbo charge the crisis. Last week in Brussels diversion tactics trumped sound strategic judgements. Under pressure, Merkozy and Cameron scored strategic own‐goals.

Download NHJ Strategic Consulting - Security Memo

UK Uncut plans to hit one particular target on 17 December, is also looking to raise funds for legal case versus HMRC and Goldman Sachs

On 17 December UK Uncut is going to hold a Christmas event targeting a particular offender, to be selected by the group’s members via a Facebook poll. This will result in coordinated action against one specific organisation, so a great deal of disruption is possible. The busiest shopping day before Christmas has clearly been deliberately chosen. 

UK Uncut is also calling for financial support in order to fight a legal battle against HMRC and Goldman Sachs, which it alleges made a deal that was unfair to the taxpayer. The group is asking for every supporter to send £1 to help their cause and will be launching a more general collection drive to support this.

CSARN MEMBER EVENT / "Let the Business Continuity Exercises Begin - Preparing for the Olympics"

10 January, 2012 at 3:00 PM GMT

Send Word Now is pleased to invite you to attend and participate in our webinar focused on "Let the Business Continuity Exercises Begin - Preparing for the Olympics."

Many organisations are unaware of the negative impacts that the 2012 Olympic Games, and the large influx of foreign visitors that come along with the event, can have on UK-based businesses. With less than 300 days left until the games, the government is strongly urging organisations to reassess their business continuity policies. Maintaining resiliency during large events can be difficult, but gaining a firm understanding on what the risks are is the first step to successfully minimizing disruptions.

Join Send Word Now and our featured speaker, Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline Ltd and Editor, CSARN Security Risk Monitor, to learn about:

• The real nature of the security threats from the London 2012 Olympics
• What every business continuity planner and security professional should know about preparing for a large-scale event
• How the UK plans to mitigate risks
• Why effective communications should play a critical role in your preparedness plan

Click to Register

New CSARN Member / ICPEM

CSARN is delighted to welcome The Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency Management as a new member to the network.

The Institute (ICPEM) exists to bring together students, emergency professionals, academics and organisations from all sectors, providing an informed and influential voice on relevant issues, and an independent, collaborative forum from which we will together champion civil protection, emergency management, business continuity and resilience world-wide.

UK / News release: Cyber security briefings for Manchester business leaders

Event: Thursday 8th December 2011 - Manchester City Hall

Cyber security experts are topping the bill at next week’s annual Manchester business security conference, run by CSARN, the largest security membership group in the United Kingdom. Other panelists during the day (8 December) will cover national security threats, natural disasters and contaminations, crisis management, and insurance coverage.

City Security and Resilience Networks (CSARN.org) have again chosen Manchester to host the annual ‘North West business security conference’ for the third year running, supported by the Manchester Business Continuity Forum.         

Richard Bingley, Chief Executive of CSARN, said:

“Manchester and the wider North West region host hundreds of thousands of businesses, and hundreds of iconic locations, who each face a different level of risk from business crime, security breaches and natural hazards. Through education and networking, our goal is to help companies protect their staff and assets against risks, which on the face of it can appear quite daunting and complex to begin with.”

CSARN / Business Continuity and Financial Crisis

The late 2000s global financial crisis has had a profound impact across business communities. If the international economy further deteriorates, how is business security and organisational resilience planning likely to be affected? Do large financial downturns significantly alter security and business continuity planning? And what is likely to happen to the Eurozone, and the wider international economy, during the next decade?

The business security and resilience service, CSARN, brings together a panel of eminent presenters including economists, emergency planning and security strategists, national politicians, and international business analysts, to help organisations horizon scan and prepare their security and continuity strategies to meet the challenges and opportunities presented in times of economic downturn and financial crisis.

SRM / Met Police - Update

Metropolitan Police:

Historically demonstrators have been known to identify and discreetly highlight business premises of interest.

There have been reports of buildings being marked with posters and stickers in the City this morning. Can your security periodically check the exterior of your premises and report anything unusual or suspicious to police immediately. Please email the information to Communities Together at Communities.Together@met.pnn.police.uk and where possible attach a photograph or provide as much detail as possible.

Photograph the markings in situ and where possible remove from the building and consider the preservation of evidence by placing in an envelope. Handle the evidence as little as possible in order to preserve the integrity of the exhibit.

NEW SPEAKER Announced / Rachel Reeves MP - Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury

We are delighted to announce Rachel Reeves MP will be covering Prospects for the UK economy and policy responses at this year’s 20 : 20 Vision / Business Security for The Next Decade conference held in London on the 20 Feb 2012

More details here>>

30 November to see first national strike in decades; public transport and services will be severely impacted; Unions test water, attempt to nudge concessions from coalition government

26 trade unions representing more than three million members in the UK will come together next week to launch a National Day of Action in support of public sector pensions, in what is predicted by industrial relations analysts to be the biggest strike in generations. This follows on from the last Day of Action on 30 June, which saw 750,000 employees go on strike and a small number of anarchist activists hijack some of the central London protest points to attack businesses. This latest protest is designed more as a show of force for larger national trade union bodies to nudge the Coalition Government back to meaningful concessions at the negotiating table, rather than the beginning of a wave of destructive strikes. Influential figures in the Union movement, such as Unite’s (the UK’s largest Union) newly elected General Secretary Len McCluskey, have so far belied the past assertiveness characterised by his team during the recent strike against BA.

 

Speaker Bios, CSARN / 3rd Business Security Conference - MANCHESTER

	Fiona Worrall / Strategic Business and Chief Officer for Civil Contingencies, Manchester City Council Awaiting Bio
	Mike Whine / Director, Government & International Affairs, Community Security Trust Michael Whine is Director, Government and International Affairs at the Community Security Trust, the defence agency of the Jewish community in the UK, and Director, Defence and Group Relations Division at the Board of Deputies of British Jews, the representative body of the community. He acts as consultant on defence and security to the European Jewish Congress, the umbrella body for European communities, and represents it at the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

UKTI / Free to attend event - Latin America - Partnering for Prosperity (Multi-Sector)

5 December 2011 - Attendance FREE
9am-12.45pm (followed by a networking lunch)
Lancaster House, London SW1A 1BB United Kingdom

This free event is hosted by the FCO and UKTI Overseas Business Risk service and will be opened by Lord Green of Hurstpierpoint, Minister of State for Trade and Investment. It will provide businesses an overview of the political and economic realities of the region as well as advice on doing business in Latin America. It will include three expert-led sessions covering:

• The latest political and economic realities in Latin America

• Dealing with the challenges or risks you may face in these markets

• The experiences of UK companies in these markets and how they have succeeded

GLOBAL / ch-q security services: 9/11, A Decade Later - Perspectives on terrorism from across the Atlantic

Pre 9-11, the security community in Europe assumed that individual terrorists wanted to attack from afar and take part in more than one operation. The danger had been mainly from the Provisional IRA and Basque separatists.

Since the 2001 attacks, however, authorities have confronted threats not just in territories which are the subject of religious or political dispute (Northern Ireland and the France-Spain border), but also in countries existing peacefully, where immigrants or foreign nationals have adopted radical ideologies.

Read full article here

Terrorism remains main security threat to games, but travel disruption is most immediate issue; process rates through security seem overstated; cabbies protest over Olympic routes, more likely

In this period Assistant Commissioner Chris Allison reconfirmed that terrorism was his main concern as regarded Olympic security. In a meeting with the London Assembly, he admitted that the full cost of security wouldn’t be known until after the event. This was a reasonable statement but it has drawn considerable attention to escalating costs. In part these have been driven by changes in the threat scenario since 2005, when the bid was won, not least increasing jihadist targeting of sports events – previously regarded as off-limits – and a resurgence in Northern Irish dissident Republican activity.

As expected, despite the aim for a “blue games” (i.e. one fronted by civilian security forces) a series of roles are now emerging for the Armed Forces. Special Forces were inevitably going to be on standby and the Royal Navy had always been factored into security for the high-profile sailing events but the regular Army now also faces an increasing role and manpower demand. Whilst the Armed Forces are happy to be involved there is also a feeling that this commitment will increase the current feeling of overstretch, with additional concerns over cost and resource implications.

GLOBAL / ch-q security services; a focus on metal theft and prevention

THE PROBLEM

Although there have been several initiatives where metal recyclers have collaborated with the police there is no strong legislation in place to stop the flow of stolen metal. The starting point is to identify the different types of metal crime.

- Bulk material theft – stored
- Bulk material theft – in use
- Salvage – roof lead, brass memorials, grates, catalytic converters etc.
- Stock theft – metal suppliers

Each category can be protected with a tailored security plan that is bespoke to its situation.

Read full article here

UK / 9 November Demonstration in Central London: MPS information for businesses

Demonstration in Central London

Wednesday 9 November 2011

Information for Businesses

A number of groups have announced that they are holding a National Student Demonstration on Wednesday 9 November 2011. Participants are expected to assemble from 12 noon on Malet Street to march to London Wall along the following route: Malet Street, Gower Street, Bloomsbury Street, Shaftesbury Avenue, Charing Cross Road Dungannon Street, The Strand, Fetter Lane, New Fetter Lane, Holborn Viaduct, Newgate Street, King Edward Street and London Wall. The march is scheduled to end at 6 pm.

The Metropolitan Police Service and City of London Police are fully aware of the potential impact of any demonstrations on the local business community and are well equipped to deal with events like this. We have an appropriate and proportionate policing plan in place and are working closely with the organisers to ensure that the protest moves through London peacefully and that any disruption is kept to a minimum.

GLOBAL / NHJ Security Memo

Memo to CEO – Planning For Major Economic Crisis

The European economic crisis just keeps getting worse. It could easily morph into a global economic crisis. A system‐wide economic disaster – 1930s level Great Depression – or, conceivably, even worse is a real possibility. We should now start to think through the implications for our present business model, and begin contingency ‘just in case’ prudent preparatory planning for some really bad and catastrophic ‘scenarios’.

Continue reading NHJ Security Memo

MEMBER / Case study: How Virgin Atlantic Airways Uses Send Word Now to Communicate During Emergencies

Virgin Atlantic Airways, one of the world’s leading long-haul airlines, was founded in 1984 and currently
has 38 aircraft in its fleet. From its main base in London, Virgin Atlantic services destinations as far apart as Las Vegas, Tokyo, Delhi, Boston and Shanghai. The airline offers service from ten U.S. cities to London and onto a range of long-haul destinations worldwide. With such an expansive network, the organization places special emphasis on safety, security, and crisis management. At London headquarters, the company’s central crisis management team is responsible for developing crisis management plans for Virgin Atlantic locations worldwide. There, Resilience Manager Tiggy Thiagarajah depends on Send Word Now’s on-demand notification and response software to communicate with his staff, and local crisis teams, whenever there is a major disruption.

Download SendWordNow-VirginAtlantic

UK / Olympics 'A Prime Target For Republican Dissidents'

Analysts have warned that a mainland attack by dissident Republicans coupled with an uplift of terrorist activity in Northern Ireland remains a realistic prospect during the Olympics.

There are concerns that the flat-lining economy coupled with the growing enthusiasm of a new breed of terrorists is creating the right conditions for dissident groups to grow.

Read full article here 

GLOBAL / NHJ Security Memo

Perfect Storm 1: The Elephant and the Emperor

Your problem, said a well-known TV presenter last week, is that the 4 of you
are speaking in a unison that is sadly lacking elsewhere; you are linking the
lilly pads – the strategic issues - and you are consistently ahead of events.
You are probably right, he added, but do not expect our politicians to get it
yet. It has to be full-face frontal and by then it could be too late. You need to
generate a chorus that something is substantially wrong.

Partner Event / Urban crisis workshop to discuss ‘very real’ security threats ahead of the 2012 Olympics

A one-day workshop on Wednesday 17th November will bring together world leaders in the field of emergency response to present and discuss new ways to manage urban-based crises and hazards.

Amid warnings from British intelligence services that the 2012 Olympic Games are set to pose an unprecedented threat to national security, the first Urban Crisis Workshop will be hosted at Coventry University’s London Campus.

Former Brigadier General John Galatas, the man responsible for planning against the threat of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) attacks at the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Greece, heads an array of expert speakers and panellists at the event, and will scrutinise the security risks associated with the 2012 Olympic Games.

The speakers – which include House of Lords peers, academics and professionals from key international security and disaster management organisations – will also talk about lessons learned from major urban emergencies such as the London bombings, 9/11, worldwide flooding crises and the tsunami-nuclear catastrophe in Japan, and propose ways to improve response capabilities.

CSARN / 3rd Business Security Conference - Latest Agenda

The annual CSARN North West Conference in partnership with the Manchester Business Continuity Forum; key national and international practitioners in security, resilience and crisis leadership share lessons in major events planning, crisis recovery, corporate security, executive safety and protection, and business continuity planning.

Speakers and Topics

Terrorism and risk analysis and how business can prepare and protect
Nigel Brown / Counter Terrorism Security Advisor, Greater Manchester Police

National security emerging threats
Andrew Erving / former head of counter-terrorism intelligence, GCHQ: UK

The Extreme Right – the other terror threat to Europe
Mike Whine / Director, Government & International Affairs, Community Security Trust

The global state of information security and strategic imperatives for information assurance
Manish Chawda / Senior Manager, PwC Manchester

Mobile data threat awareness and implications of phone hacking activity for business communities
John Bayliss / Director, Communications Risk Management

Horizon scanning of UK business risks from political violence, single issue groups and resurgent disorder
Justin Crump / CEO of Sibylline

Cyber security and risks in social media
Mark Johnson / Executive Chairman of The Risk Management Group and police cyber crime adviser

Building resilience against mass contamination and CBR scenarios
Paul Hayden / MD of Resolve Network and adviser to the United Nations on disaster management

Security Risk Monitor / Gadhafi’s controversial death marks official end of fighting in Libya, but guerrilla campaign likely to continue; political infighting will become more apparent in National Transitional Council

On 25 October the bodies of deposed Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi and his son Mutassim were secretly buried, ending a dispute that had raged since their killing in questionable circumstances in the town of Sirte. Since Gadhafi was certainly captured alive, as evidenced by video footage, pressure has been placed on the National Transitional Council (NTC) to investigate the deaths and it has somewhat reluctantly agreed to do so. The incident has further tarnished the NTC’s image, which had already been degraded by factional infighting and allegations of mass torture of up to 7,000 Gadhafi loyalists.

Whilst an important milestone, Gadhafi’s death and the fall of Sirte may not herald a decisive end to fighting. His most effective heir, Sayf al-Islam, remains at large and has vowed to continue the campaign against the rebels. He is believed still to be liaising with Gadhafi’s former head of intelligence, General Abdullah Senussi, who seems successfully to have fled the country into Niger. It is probable therefore that this is where he too will end up, especially as it is a comparably welcoming base, despite most of his surviving family now being in Algeria. Gadhafi loyalists have previously mounted targeted terrorist attacks and such activity remains possible.

Restricted Items list for Olympic venues

The following is a non-exhaustive list of restricted items which may not be taken into a Venue (LOCOG reserves the right to amend this list, generally, or in respect of any Venue or Session): food (save for baby food), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (save for baby milk and other valid medical reasons), liquids in containers of greater than 100ml in size, needles (save as required for valid medical reasons), animals (save for assistance or guide dogs), weapons (including knives), illegal drugs, other illegal substances, fireworks, firecrackers, poles, flagpoles, sticks, large photographic equipment (including tripods), bats, large umbrellas and other blunt instruments, motorcycles, bicycles, roller-skates, skateboards, or other types of skates, electronic transmitting equipment, flags of countries not participating in the Games, large flags or banners, horns, whistles, drums, rattles, musical instruments, lasers or any other devices that in the opinion of L OCOG may disturb a Session, objects bearing trademarks or other kinds of promotional signs or messages (such as hats, T-shirts, bags, etc) which LOCOG believes are for promotional purposes, counterfeit products, balls, rackets, frisbees or similar objects, large quantities of coins, lighters, advertising or promotional material of any kind, printed matter bearing religious, political or offensive content or content contrary to public order and/or morality, bottles or containers made of glass or other material, flasks, thermoses, refrigerators, large objects such as suitcases or bags, and in general any material that LOCOG may deem dangerous or that may cause damage or disruption to a Session." All confiscated items will be destroyed, it says elsewhere. I think the camera note is only for particularly large items and perhaps that's where the memory came from. Also remember that you can only use Visa to buy anything inside the park...no Mastercard. And absolutely no guerrilla marketing!

Justin Crump - CSARN Security Risk Monitor

Google - Good to Know, advice for staying more secure on the web

Go to google "Good to Know" site >>

Workshop on URBAN CRISIS: EMERGENCY LESSONS, RESPONSE, TRAINING & TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE DIGITAL AGE

Workshop on URBAN CRISIS: EMERGENCY LESSONS, RESPONSE, TRAINING & TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE DIGITAL AGE

A one-day conference hosted at Coventry University London Campus on 17th November 2011

Join us at the Urban Crisis event in London on 17th November 2011 to become part of an exciting international collaboration with the grand aim to set up an International Risk, Resilience and Response Centre (IRRRC).

OVERVIEW

Funded through the Prime Minister’s Initiative Fund, this event will bring together leading international specialists in the fields of emergency response and management, training, simulation and gaming, and policy and government studies to set out a road map for the future of national and cross-national best practices. The workshop will offer an exciting opportunity for key stakeholders to drive international collaboration with the grand aim to set up an International Risk, Resilience and Response Centre (IRRRC).

The event is being sponsored by the Prime Minister's Initiative Fund, CSARN and ARUP.

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